Proper projections of future changes can help heighten the autonomy and effectiveness of choices and actions. The choice of future career paths and employment has the characteristic of being carried out based on a consideration of future shifts. To be able to perform specific jobs, one needs to take a series of steps such as completing the pertinent education courses, engaging in job training, and obtaining the relevant certificate of qualification. Moreover, the period in which one will engage in the selected job is generally rather lengthy. Therefore, future job choices should be carried out based on an occupational supply and demand projection system which makes it possible to forecast potential future occupations. The selection of a career path that is not in keeping with labor market demand can lead to many economic hardships for the relevant individuals. In addition, such situations can also cause problems such as making it hard for enterprises to recruit the required manpower, and at the national level, create unemployment.
Based on a prediction of future economic structure, an occupational supply and demand projection system includes various factors such as changes in occupational employment, change in expected wages, and the change in required skill levels. Changes in occupational employment are mainly influenced by changes in final demand, the development of technical levels, changes in business practices, and the expansion of international transactions. In this regard, the changes in production and consumption created by the growth or contraction of international transactions can be regarded as the factor most difficult to predict and which bring about some of the most rapid shifts. The level of occupational wages based on the supply and demand for labor within the relevant occupation, and influenced by various factors, is a very important factor when considering the economic significance of a particular occupation. In terms of job selection, wages (income) should be taken to implythe wages that can be anticipated given the possibility of securing employment within the relevant field, and the outlook for long-term employment, rather than the wage levels at a specific point in time. Changes in occupational skills are influenced by the development of technical levels and changes in business practices. The introduction of new technologies or equipment can change the methods used to perform the related job tasks and eventually bring about shifts in the skills required.
As an occupational supply and demand projection system must take into consideration these complicated and diverse variables, various models have been developed based on the institutions and customs of the relevant labor market or the stages of economic development of the pertinent country.
Economically advanced countries such as the United States have developed occupational supply and demand projection models that have been based on their own characteristics, and have made continuous improvements to these models over time. Various Korean institutes have developed projection models covering specific periods, and these have been used to compile occupational supply and demand projections. However, the majority of these projections have been focused on capacity-centered quantitative models. Moreover, as occupational classifications were restricted to the sub-major group level, many limitations have emerged with regards to the actual use of these models.
This study consists of a reanalysis of existing occupational supply and demand projection models in order to establish a new model that makes it possible to forecast the supply and demand for manpower at the occupational unit level, as well as of an analysis of the relevant results from a multilateral standpoint. In addition, this study is also geared towards helping teenagers, who form the manpower of the future, choose advantageous future career paths, and to induce their smooth school to work transition. Moreover, this study may also serve as the foundation upon which presently employed or job-seeking individuals base their decision to change jobs, or the manner in which they seek employment. By heightening the job match between the jobseekers and various occupations and those engaged in the relevant field, this study will increase the manpower pool and its usage, and ultimately contribute to the achievement of economic growth and general job stability. Furthermore, this study is expected to be used in many occupational studies conducted by the Korea Research Institute for Vocational Education & Training (KRIVET) and to improve the effectiveness of these studies.
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